Whose October real estate bingo card saw a 7.7% increase in home sales?
The most recent data from the Canadian Real Estate Association( CREA) shows a month-over-month increase in home sales activity for Canadians, surpassing the 10-year monthly moving average and reaching a level not seen since April 2022.
According to Shaun Cathcart, top economist at CREA, the increase in home sales from October was unquestionably a surprise.
Monthly home sales activity increased by 30% over October 2023( not seasonally adjusted).
In October, there were fewer newly listed properties than they did, down 3.5% month over month.
In October, the actual nationwide average sale price increased by 6% on a year-over-year basis.
Why Did October Home Sales Spike?
As Cathcart suggested, the sudden increase wasn’t necessarily triggered by the Bank of Canada’s recent rate cut—though it certainly helped market sentiment. Instead, the real driver was September’s 4.8% increase in new listings, which gave buyers the options they’d been waiting for.
The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and British Columbia’s Lower Mainland were the key players in this trend, with both regions posting double-digit growth. The GTA saw a 14% month-over-month rise in sales, while Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley saw sales spike nearly 20%.
According to CREA Chair James Mabey, October’s data indicates buyers have been active in the market since interest rates started declining earlier in the summer. However, many were waiting for the right property, and the surge of new listings in September provided the opportunity they had anticipated.
Remember that, in November, home sales generally tend to slow down.
While October’s figures were attention-grabbing—especially with a 30% increase compared to October 2023—November may see activity return to more typical levels.
In CREA’s Housing Market Report, Cathcart suggested that October and possibly November could be seen as a preview of even more significant numbers expected when the snow begins to melt next year.
Home Prices Stay Flat For Now
Despite the jump in sales, home prices across Canada remained relatively steady. CREA’s MLS® Home Price Index (HPI)—a trusted tool used by REALTORS® to measure price trends—was nearly unchanged in October, dipping just 0.07%.
Cathcart explained that there is typically a lag between a spike in demand and when prices begin to react. Historically, this delay averages about five months, so if current trends persist, prices could rise as early as next month.
The national sales-to-new-listings ratio increased from 52% to 58% in October, and the inventory-monthly count decreased from 4.1 months to 3.7 months.
British Columbia and Ontario’s regional prices are lower, keeping the regular price at the national level low. Prices are rising in the East Coast, Quebec, and Prairies markets.
Cathcart added that the Canadian housing market appeared to have reversed trends almost overnight, comparing it to someone playing an Uno reverse card. Nationally, the actual (non-seasonally adjusted) average home price in October 2024 was $696,166.
